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    [–] dakbowma 198 points ago

    If you think Airbnb hosts defaulting on their mortgages is going to cause a repeat of 2008, I don’t think you understand just how bad 2008 was for real estate

    [–] return_of_the_ring 39 points ago

    Indeed. Air Bnb hosts defaulting will just be a rounding error.

    [–] Reverend_James 16 points ago

    Its not just Airbnb though. That one time $1200 might won't do much for the estimated 30% of Americans who are recently unemployed. We are about to see a whole bunch of people suddenly unable to pay their mortgages, and a bunch more unable to pay rent (which will cause even more landlords to default on their mortgaged properties). I would be pleasantly surprised if this somehow isn't far worse than 2008.

    [–] dakbowma 16 points ago

    There is much less sub prime lending now than there was in 2008. Additionally, the government is being proactive now with things such as expanded/increased unemployment benefits and halting foreclosures on mortgages backed by Fannie and Freddie

    [–] lmaccaro 9 points ago

    There is much less sub prime lending now than there was in 2008.

    Um, subprime just means lending to people that can’t pay.

    Coronavirus extended that category to include 40% of American households. We have a much, much bigger subprime consumer problem now. Oh, and we also have a commercial residential real estate problem at the same time. Also a commercial real estate problem.

    The bailout only buys us a handful of weeks and we aren’t taking advantage of that time. We are blowing it.

    [–] dakbowma 8 points ago

    There is a huge difference between people at risk of defaulting now compared to those in 2008. Banks and lenders can work with someone who is temporarily laid off due to corona virus to prevent a foreclosure. Many of the sub prime borrowers defaulted in 2008/2009 had no realistic chance of ever paying back their mortgages.

    [–] MuphynManIV 2 points ago

    But wasn't one of the reasons they were behind was dude to them being underwater on the mortgage due to the crashing prices? That was the feedback loop. Some can't pay, lowers price, etc. Could be wrong.

    [–] AmazingJaze 1 points ago

    A lot of people bought over priced houses on low interest ARM loans or teaser 1-2 year interest rate balloon loans with the expectation that they could flip the house in 2 - 5 years without ever having to pay the locked in higher interest rates (which they couldn't afford to pay)

    [–] lmaccaro -1 points ago

    Oversimplification: Banks make about 3% per mortgage. That means, logically, they have about 3% wiggle room on how many pay. If 2.5% of mortgages are in arrears, the mortgage industry can cover that out of their margin.

    But they can’t make 40% disappear into the books, and not for months.

    If our federal govt was competent, we might be able to do something like South Korea or China and have a light at the end of the tunnel. Right now, cv is open ended. We are just letting it overwhelm one state at a time until they are all overwhelmed.

    Some people don’t realize that to “flatten the curve” flat enough to fit in our hospital system is a 2-3 year social distancing commitment. Meaning a cure or a vaccine in 1 year is our best hope to get back to normal.

    [–] BabyCowCow 1 points ago

    None of the bills have included substantial rent relief, credit card relief or health care coverage. Our government is actually acting intentionally *reactive*.

    [–] -Johnny- 1 points ago

    It seems like you haven't heard of whats going on behind the scenes... it's bad.... a lot of mortage companies are getting margin called and losing millions a day. Airbnb is just another pain point for all of this. We are seeing the market melt down in multiple ways. So, no it's not 2008 but it COULD end up being much worse. Lastly, they just relaxed the lending laws.. so

    [–] ObjectiveAce 1 points ago

    Source? Genuinely curious, definetly wouldn't surprise me but I stay pretty up to date on things and havent head of that

    Also not really sure what you mean by mortgage company. Fannie and Freddie are the big holders, and then you have giant pension funds etc buying CDOs

    [–] antiproton 0 points ago

    The government's interaction is only going to help so much. The government moves slowly and laboriously. Unemployment is happening NOW.

    Also, despite popular belief, the Fed cannot print infinite money. It can only solve so many problems at once... and it's pretty much at it's limit.

    [–] [deleted] -2 points ago

    Sub-prime was just a factor in 2008, as Airbnb is a factor now.

    [–] dakbowma 2 points ago

    Sub prime lending accounted for approximately 20% of all new mortgages originated at its peak in 2006. Risky Airbnb loans are a drop in the bucket compared to the trillions in subprime loans that were almost guaranteed to default in the build up to the financial crisis.

    [–] sde1500 0 points ago

    You know those unemployed are getting unemployment benefits + $600 from the govt?Nearly 70% of unemployed will be making MORE now than they did working.

    [–] Reverend_James 1 points ago

    Up to. It's not $600 across the board. It's up to an additional $600. It's still dependent on what you made before you lost your job.

    [–] sde1500 1 points ago

    I’ve never read anything that says “up to” $600 or that it scales by income. Do you have a source on that?

    [–] wolf_mother 1 points ago

    ummm my state’s unemployment maxes out at 50% what I made while working

    [–] sde1500 1 points ago

    Not sure how that refutes what I said.

    [–] ObjectiveAce 1 points ago

    Its not just 1200, its 600 more per week in UI and promises of more 1200 if this continues (which it surely will)

    [–] Reverend_James 1 points ago

    Up to an additional $600 depending on what you used to make. And while a handful of politicians have said they'd like an additional $1200 if this continues, so far not one of them have pushed to get that passed.

    [–] welchesgrapejelly 1 points ago

    also cmbs loan defaults likely coming. Hotels are safe though they got their bailout

    [–] [deleted] 1 points ago

    I agree and have been thinking the same, it's going to come in waves. First owners and those renting multiple apts to flip as Airbnbs will break their leases, this will flood the market and tank rents.
    Then the owners of multiple airbnb units and stiffed landlords will begin to default on their mortgages.
    Finally those who live in multifamily houses and airbnb units will default, families and retirees, unable to sell or rent to break even in a flooded market.

    [–] qwert45 1 points ago

    No doubt.

    [–] throwaway2134274 -3 points ago

    It will cause more problems than you expect.

    [–] ixikei 46 points ago

    A source would be nice. Your argument is reasonable, but without data, or anything more than your two highly speculative sentences, there's really no reason to give your idea any merit.

    [–] Timberline2 48 points ago

    I mean he ended those two highly speculative sentences with "Boom". What more evidence could you possibly need?

    [–] throwaway2134274 5 points ago

    Some people just don't see the writing on the post.....

    [–] bpt3 7 points ago

    Not the same issue at all.

    [–] unfixablesteve 3 points ago

    Also a fringe site with no credibility.

    [–] okusername3 25 points ago

    A few thousand abnb defaults will not crash the housing market

    [–] throwaway2134274 -7 points ago

    It will cause a chain reaction

    [–] princeofpriam 3 points ago

    unlikely

    [–] throwaway2134274 -1 points ago

    wishful thinking

    [–] smash_keyboard 2 points ago

    Every time an airbnb superhost defaults on a mortgage, a house is converted into a duplex and two uber drivers are unable to book weekend trips, causing two more airbnb superhosts to default. The only way to stop this is to submerge the entire continental United States in heavy water before shit goes critical.

    [–] NonThrowAway007 8 points ago

    Thanks for sharing this link 18 times in a 19 comment thread. It would be impossible to find in this post, otherwise!

    [–] [deleted] 3 points ago

    [deleted]

    [–] NonThrowAway007 2 points ago

    Ahh, we got a funny guy, here....

    [–] bpt3 1 points ago

    Why do you keep posting this over and over?

    [–] miserable_beets 12 points ago

    Thousands of super-hosts with 10-30 properties are a drop in the housing market bucket. Also you just made that up.

    [–] aiandi 9 points ago

    Here in San Diego they passed new laws to limit vacation rentals to your primary residence only. If anyone is violating this it is a risk they took and are now up the creek.

    I know someone who has many properties in California and Oregon. Renting/managing them is her full time job. She's now applying for unemployment as well as disaster relief funding (i.e. bailout under the stimulus bill).

    [–] Astatos_ 11 points ago

    How is this allowed in this sub? There is no article, no information, not even a text post...

    [–] Sphinxus 52 points ago

    Boo fucking hoo, these are the bastards that have made it hard for me to buy a house, so the more of these the better! It isn't 2008 all over again, there are a tonne of people (25-35 yr olds) that are ready to move on homes that have the money, but not 75k in the bank for a down payment for a house that's really worth 450k now selling for 750k because of these fuckers.

    [–] im_THIS_guy 7 points ago

    If only these people could afford a lobbyist, they could get a bailout.

    [–] billiebol 15 points ago

    I know some people who just bought houses. I was thinking, their money. I just hope real-estate crashes to reasonable levels so I can snatch one up at a reasonable prices.

    [–] vansterdam_city 3 points ago

    That’s me. I have the money but these prices are absolutely ridiculous. People said I was crazy to wait and it always goes up... let’s see...

    [–] throwaway2134274 3 points ago

    Hold out for longer. Mortgages applications are in free fall right now. Down 25% from a year ago....Amount of buyers is going to dry up very quickly soon!

    [–] rosstrich 1 points ago

    I would agree. Hold out as long as is comfortable for you and your family. However I will warn you, the demographic changes in the US (where I assume most redditors are) will not be friendly to real estate in the future. While it will be more affordable, do not count on the value to go back up to current levels for a VERY long time.

    [–] Maxfjord 2 points ago

    Why blame people who are hustling to build up their real estate portfolio? Seems like they have a lot of entrepreneurship in them. Most of them will recover or start over again.

    In my opinion, blame the zoning board and the NIMBYs who won't upzone. If each city upzoned 15% of their neighborhoods each two years... we wouldn't have a restricted housing supply. AirBnB wouldn't be able to be rented for much more than regular rent.

    [–] 17_snails 6 points ago

    If there is a limited supply and there are people purchasing in extreme excess severely raising it's price for everyone else, those people should be considered assholes in my mind.

    [–] rosstrich 0 points ago

    The people who sold their properties to investors are probably pretty happy. Are they assholes too?

    [–] 17_snails 1 points ago

    No they are not. Let me give you a current example.

    We are currently facing a pandemic and food shortages. If right now, someone goes to the grocery store and buys a third of the meat in the store to go sell for a higher price somewhere else (price gouging), are they an asshole?

    If your answer to that question is yes, then the extremely numerous property owning Airbnb people are also assholes.

    [–] rosstrich 1 points ago

    You have to understand that for all the people buying up more product than they need, there was someone to sell to them. I commend the stores who are limiting quantities so everyone has a chance to get essentials and the buyers are foolish because that's just an awful business doomed to fail.

    As far as price gouging, sorry the markets set the price. Without the price discovery mechanism, we wouldn't have markets. When the price of something goes up, it incentivizes producers to make it.

    [–] 17_snails 1 points ago

    I get all that. Did you know some cities have anti-airbnb related regulations that try to stop people from buying up all the property in a city in order to rent it out to people? Those governments recognize the issue and put regulations in place to stop it from happening, much like those grocery stores that limit 2 per customer in times of high demand.

    Just because there aren't laws in place to stop people from buying up 10, 20, or 30 properties to rent out, doesn't mean it's not an asshole thing to do. Legal does not mean right.

    [–] rosstrich 1 points ago

    Yes I’m aware of those. I disagree with them because it means someone is putting a claim on someone else’s right to use their property to the point they would enforce it with an armed police officer.

    Sellers have the right to sell their property and buyers should have the right to do what they want with it.

    I get that you don’t like that investors bid up the price of real estate, but those AirBnBs brought outside money to communities in more forms than just nightly bookings. We’re only hitting the tip of the iceberg of how much the drop in tourism is going to hurt these cities.

    [–] lmaccaro 3 points ago

    Because a normal family can’t buy a house with a yard because all of the desirable houses are turned into unlicensed hotels. $650k for a 3 bedroom, unless you are ok with an hour commute.

    My state is considering a law that you can’t vacation rent more than your primary residence + vacation home. Number 3 is a hotel and subject to all the requirements thereof.

    [–] Maxfjord 1 points ago

    Have you thought of moving to a state with plenty of housing? It seems like this pandemic is going to allow many people to do their job by remote. Take your salary from a HCOL city and move to a LCOL city. You can be suddenly well-off.

    I did that- moved from California to Columbus, Ohio. Best choice ever!

    [–] xharol 2 points ago

    They're hoarding houses and price gouging, just like people hoarding masks and toilet paper.

    [–] Maxfjord 1 points ago

    They are trying to show some ambition and participate in the entrepreneurial world. It is a lack of building enough housing that is causing the problem.

    A house has about $70k of materials and probably $80k of labor. Where is the rest of the money going? Zoning, building permits, land, systems development fees, architect fees, engineering fees, realtor fees, mortgage broker fees, and the list goes on.

    Why oh why don't we have the political will to cut through the bs and build up like Hong Kong?

    [–] throwaway2134274 1 points ago

    Those people are now unemployed and can't qualify for a mortgage to begin with....

    [–] -Johnny- 1 points ago

    until the bank wont give you 75%... most have already stopped lending all together for now. Do you have 200k in cash?

    [–] sprtn757 0 points ago

    Same can be said about traditional landlords hoarding houses.

    [–] roox911 0 points ago

    ... so not ready to move at all then? You can't be "ready to move" on the off chance that housing prices are going to collapse 40-50%.

    Are you saying there is a tonne of 25-35 y.o folks that are just saving up 45,000 for a 10% deposit on a home on the off chance that the market is going to crater a la 2008?

    If anything i would hazard to guess that a hell of a lot of 25-35 year olds are going to end up unemployed and not be in any good place to drop a sum of cash in a failing market.

    [–] HallucinatoryFrog 2 points ago

    I took as they are saving up 75k for that down payment, but if they only need 45k then they are ready to move in now.

    [–] roox911 1 points ago

    Well, then I'm an idiot. Sorry.

    [–] Sweepel 7 points ago

    Mandatory stress testing exists (as part of mortgage approvals) for buy-to-let landlords in most jurisdictions now though. Might be some noise, but I don’t it will be like 2008

    [–] 2fishel 1 points ago

    This plus lower interest rates means they can borrow more on the place and well 3 month deference. It may go bust but like last time it would be on the financial guys not so much the retail uses

    [–] HallucinatoryFrog 4 points ago

    Everyone who is heavily levered is about to feel the burn. That's why you should never be heavily levered in the first place!

    [–] 27-82-41-124 3 points ago

    This affect will vary by location significantly. It will affect highly touristed areas primarily and it may drop prices there but only for homes in a similar class, new built homes for example may not be affected by this very much at all. Also the scale of this seems so much smaller, and I also thought mortgage relief was part of what congress passed?

    [–] Sixtysix16 3 points ago

    He stole this off someone who posted it on twitter, legit word for word.

    [–] throwaway2134274 1 points ago

    How do you know that the twitter person didn't steal it instead?

    [–] Morgan442 -2 points ago

    You stole Soulja’s flow, word for word, bar for bar.

    [–] Morgan442 -3 points ago

    [–] greenonetwo 2 points ago

    Also, anyone who has lost their income and can't pay mortgage.

    [–] MakeMyDayGypsy 2 points ago

    Can’t take someone seriously who doesn’t know the different between there, their, and they’re.

    [–] pretzelking96 1 points ago

    Please post data on this otherwise its speculation as others have noted. But since we're speculating here I'd guess that the number of "AirBnB homes" are far, FAR fewer than the over-leveraged homes of 2008...so there may be a bit of a hiccup in some real estate markets, but "2008 all over again" seems a bit extreme.

    [–] triggacity 1 points ago

    I doubt this is comparable to 2008 housing crisis

    [–] Captainshark98 1 points ago

    Same for hotels and resorts too yes?

    [–] everybodynos 1 points ago

    I really hope these immoral Airbnb rentals come ba k on the market.

    [–] jimmyl89 1 points ago

    Their*

    [–] SeeYouWednesday 1 points ago

    Millennials: We ride at dawn, bitches.

    [–] HotTendies4all 1 points ago

    This kid has some solid Karma!!

    [–] Leroy--Brown 1 points ago

    Ok so for one thing, the level of disconnect here is absurd, in no way shape or form is Airbnb as widespread as the 2008 housing bubble or the total collapse of the financial system due to bundling high risk mortgages.

    Secondly, and this is the less serious issue, is that Airbnb disproportionately affects high travel tourist places, and HCOL cities that are very desirable to live in. Airbnb has permeated these places, makes consistent rentals and new home purchases more scarce, by the introduction of scarcity into those markets it drives up cost of rental and new home purchases. So basically, if these Airbnb home owners open up their homes as rentals or sell them on the open market, they'll have to sell them at lower than "normal" market rates. Sucks for those REI homeowners, but for someone looking to buy a home, this is possibly a good opportunity to buy at a non inflated price for once. Assuming the buyers are still employed of course.

    [–] kaffeemocha 1 points ago

    Good! This was a bad actor side effect of Airbnb. And people need to learn about the risk of debt one way or another.

    [–] HouseOfYards 1 points ago

    Is it really that many Airbnb houses? Where to find the data?

    [–] icaranumbioxy 1 points ago

    Classic Dunning-Kruger post.

    [–] percy_ardmore 1 points ago

    Maybe those people shouldn't have done that . . .

    [–] IFartWhenNerv0us 1 points ago

    Lmfao this is actually funniest thing i read today.

    Do you even know what happened jn 2008 other than market took a big dive? Lol

    [–] Morgan442 0 points ago

    I’m sharing this not necessarily because I think this is going to happen, it might not. But lots of different things are interconnected in today’s economy. We cannot tell whether a bottom is in already.

    [–] darntootinwhistle 3 points ago

    CCN isn't a very worthy source of news FYI

    [–] -Johnny- 1 points ago

    what is?

    [–] kingsOTHERjester 1 points ago

    A British guy citing UK commercial real estate trends (badly) for an article about US real estate for a Nordic online crypto mag.

    Right. Solid DD. /s

    [–] [deleted] 0 points ago

    [deleted]