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    ExemplaryChad

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    [–] This pandemic is showing people for who they really are ExemplaryChad 1 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Complete tangent and just genuinely curious: I don't really like animals that much, but I wonder if we could get along. :-)

    I don't dislike being around animals, really; I just don't really care about them or form much of a connection with them. When I had pets I took good care of them. I just never felt much of that emotional attachment that so many people apparently do. They're perfectly fine, but I could take them or leave them in my day-to-day life.

    That said, I believe very strongly in animal welfare and am vegetarian because of it. I also take some vegan measures like not wearing leather, though that doesn't apply to my diet (anymore). What do you think? Could we be friends?

    Edit: Brevity!

    [–] I'm the only non-white person (brown guy) in a workplace that employs like 30 people and I couldn't give a fuck about diversity or that I'm the only non-white person there. ExemplaryChad 88 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Yes! This is why diversity measures are sometimes mandated. (Quotas are illegal in the US, I'm pretty sure.) A lot of people misunderstand the methods by which corporations are expected to encourage diversity.

    It's not about ignoring qualified white people in order to give jobs to minorities! It's about making sure corporations are reaching out and giving minorities the opportunity to prove they are qualified.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 0 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    "You’re passionate and educated. The world needs what you have to offer."

    Wow, geez, thanks so much. I've thought about it... Don't know if I have the stomach for it.

    Totally agreed about the unfavorable numbers though. That's a HUGE plus, and hopefully one that actually turns out to matter.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 1 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    It's absolutely speculation. My whole rant is speculation. I wish there were reliable statistics that could calm my pessimism, but I haven't seen them. I've seen things that suggest Biden has the best shot, but I haven't seen any reason to suggest that they're more reliable than statistics in 2016, sadly.

    I honestly wish I had data that could make me confident, but I don't think it's a reliable enough field as a whole. (Of course, this doesn't apply to every piece of predictive data.)

    Based on what happened in 2016, on my experience, on the people I've been around throughout my life and am around now, my prediction is this: Trump is going to get most (nearly all) of the voters he got in 2016. The Dems don't have that advantage. Putting somebody up who is not going to fire up any base is not going to be enough. Trump brought out both Trumpers and anti-Hillary voters. He still has those votes. The Dems now need anti-Trumpers and pro-whoever voters. If they don't put forward a candidate who can get those pro votes, they're not going to win. I don't think Biden can get those votes.

    Again, this is absolutely all non-scientific speculation. If there is a more scientific means of prediction, I would be all for seeing it. This is just how I view the landscape, and I'm not sure we have anything better to believe.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 2 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    I think your point is a good one. These elusive "intangibles" do have a huge effect, and I'm not sure Bernie has enough of them. There are other candidates who do, though. I think Biden is likable and affable, but he doesn't have poise or gravitas. I'm not sure other candidates got to display their chops, but I suspect many were better.

    I'm not sure I agree that either Bush had this "presence" factor though. Reagan, certainly, and I agree with the rest. But probably not Sr. or W.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 0 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    "I didn't know how bad it was," is not the same as, "I thought it was great." There are tons of issues that are worse than I know, to be sure, and I'd like to think that I'll be open to learning about those things no matter how old I am. I know going to a school with gang violence is bad. Do I know exactly how bad? Probably not. So if my eyes were opened to that years from now, should it be assumed that I always thought it was fine?

    Yeah, I very much agree about race issues. As you've adeptly stated, it's not something that racial majorities can usually (or ever) fully grasp, and I like your thyroid analogy. It seems like it's probably true that race > class, but I wonder what your reasons are for thinking so. It's just not something I've thought about that much. Care to elaborate?

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 2 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Downvoting for teh lulz. (Not really)

    Also, if this is what you think Democrats are (of which I do not consider myself), then you must think Republicans are racist, misogynistic wife-beaters who would save a gun from a burning building rather than a black child and who think Mexico and all of the Middle East should be nuked off the planet.

    That's foolish and naive.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 2 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    You're absolutely right that I know nothing for certain. This is definitely what I think will happen, but I presented it as a more matter-of-fact rant because, you know, r/trueoffmychest.

    I feel like I usually have my finger on the pulse of these things pretty well, but I absolutely could be wrong, and I desperately hope that I am.

    I think Biden has very low odds of winning, regardless of predictive statistics (so far; there's certainly a chance I could be convinced otherwise). I think other candidates (maybe Bernie, maybe someone else) would have had a better shot. I'm not sure about any of it, and my stance absolutely could change by November.

    Hey, NFL "draft analysts" do it; why can't I? :-D

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 2 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    I'm not saying Bernie would have the best shot. I named a number of other candidates whom I think would have a better shot. I'm saying Biden has a terrible shot. Personally, I think Bernie would either win spectacularly or lose spectacularly; I honestly don't know which. But I feel pretty confident in saying Biden is going to lose, albeit closely.

    And I'm certainly not calling for an end to democracy, haha. I'm not saying anyone needs to change any results. I'm saying I'm frustrated with some Democrats. No more, no less.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 2 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Bernie admitting that he "never knew how bad" the criminal justice system was for POC isn't a bad thing... It means he now realizes it. As a white guy, I didn't know it either for a long time. I don't think that makes me a bad progressive. I could be wrong, but I don't think that's a quote that many people would hold against him.

    And yes, there are progressives who are hypocrites! I've never claimed otherwise, and I'm certainly not going to do so now. There are many Bernie Bros who are terrible, festering assholes. Again, I'm not saying anyone needs to do anything at the behest of anyone else. I'm just predicting what I think will be the case.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 1 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    I don't believe the DNC actively interfered to make Biden the nominee. (I think they did in 2016. Whether that was the difference between him winning or losing, I can't be sure.) However, due to Bernie's loss in 2016, I think it was pretty much assumed that Biden would be the front runner this time around. Honestly, I didn't think Bernie would get as far as he has now. For better or worse (mostly worse), Bernie has always been considered an outside contender. He's formidable, and other Dems have to account for him, but he's never really been the serious front runner, even when he was polling out in front. I don't think it's a fair assessment of the desires of the population at large, but among the experts and politicians, this has always been the case.

    Trump, I believe, has always been very sure it would be Biden. He believes that the country, and much of the world, skews to the right. Sometimes he's correct about that, and sometimes he's not. But if he's assuming most of the country shares his mindset, and that even the Dems are more like him than they are like Bernie (whom he consistently calls "crazy"), then he was never going to take Bernie seriously either. I think this is another case where he's going to turn out to be right, but not as right as he would claim.

    So was there a grand conspiracy to keep Bernie out? No, I don't think so. But there was an unhelpful bias and self-fulfilling prophecy that trickled down into the primary results.

    This is all just my estimation of the situation, and I'm sure others will disagree. Hope this is interesting and/or helpful. :-)

    [–] Replaying Diablo 2 and I love getting lost in the rabbit hole of character builds... what recent games have similar “old-school” skill trees/stat systems? ExemplaryChad 2 points ago in rpg_gamers

    As others have hinted at, Path of Exile will ruin your life. You could be lost, wandering the god-forbidden wasteland of character builds for the next hundred generations. It will consume your very essence, and you will never escape.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad -6 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Haha, honestly, that's fair. I'm just making a prediction based on the best knowledge I have available. It's really not that different from the NFL draft: a bunch of "experts" spouting nonsense only to get 1 or 2 things right and justify keeping their jobs as "experts" for another year (except in my case, it's not a job, which is probably sadder).

    But genuinely, good for you taking care of yourself. If you're not interested or if it stresses you out, step away and stick with that decision. More power to you.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 2 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Oh I absolutely agree that it's going to be different from 2016. But I think 2016 could have taught Democrats valuable lessons that many seem unlikely to learn or pay attention to.

    Trump is not going to get more voters than he did in 2016; I feel pretty confident about that. He has his base, and he's not winning anyone new. He'll lose a few, but I don't think it's going to be a huge number. So if we count on him to have roughly the same performance he did in 2016, Democrats need to have a better showing than they did in that election. Hillary brought out voters both strongly for and strongly against. The strongly against are still gonna go vote for Trump. I don't think Biden is the candidate to inspire that strongly for vote. Thus, I'm predicting that, despite a different landscape, Democrats will not perform well enough to win. It won't be the surprise, come-from-behind, improbable victory of 2016. But it will have the same end result.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 1 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Hmm, that's a good question. Obviously, it's impossible to tell for sure, but:

    I think Mayor Pete would have had a good chance. Cory Booker. Maaaaaaybe Klobuchar or Bloomberg. Bernie would have a chance.

    Name recognition, a more central stage, better funding... all of these things would change the landscape for a candidate, especially a non-front runner. With all of these candidates, I think it would honestly be very difficult to predict were they to get the nomination. It really wouldn't be surprising to see any of them win big or lose big. Sadly, with Biden, I fear we have a predictable loss. A close loss, to be sure, but a nearly inevitable one.

    I'd much rather roll the dice on someone with a chance to win or flame out spectacularly, than roll over with a candidate who will (in my estimation) lose, even if he gets close.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 1 points ago * (lasted edited 8 days ago) in TrueOffMyChest

    Yes, you're exactly right. I'm just saying I think the Democratic voters in the primaries are wrong in their belief. :-)

    Edit: You ninja edited me there, and I don't think you're exactly right anymore, haha. Biden's "problematic history" isn't the same as Trump's for sure. But it's bad enough for centrists to throw their hands up and say, "They're just the same!"

    There are lots of moderates; I totally get that as well. If you'll notice, I didn't say the Dems need a progressive candidate to win. I just said they need one that's not Biden. Mayor Pete probably would have fit the bill nicely.

    Sure I'm upset Bernie isn't winning, but that's not where this post comes from. I'm not saying Bernie gives the BEST chance. I'm just saying Biden gives the WORST.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad -7 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    I think you're misunderstanding what I said in a number of ways.

    I'm not saying black voters should simply vote for another candidate because they're the Democrat on the ticket. (I pointed this out explicitly in another comment.) But I do think they would come around to Bernie because his policies are very friendly to minority causes, and he has long been a champion of civil rights issues.

    I'm also not saying I like Bernie voters not being willing to vote for Biden. I said in my original post that I plan to vote for him regardless. I hope enough people do the same.

    I hope that supporters of either candidate will come out and vote for the other. I believe black voters will; I don't think progressive voters are as likely to do so. I'm not valuing one strategy over the other; I'm simply making a prediction.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 6 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Oh, I'm very happy to talk about Bernie's policies. I just didn't want to go off on a tangent when that wasn't really the topic at hand. :-) And progressives definitely will be following his lead, hopefully for the next couple of decades at least.

    It's still far too early to tell if I'll still feel this way, but I'm crossing my fingers for AOC a few election cycles from now. ;-)

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 1 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Every other comment I've made on this post explains why I'm frustrated and why I think Bernie (or just about anyone else) would fare better than Biden, haha. The short explanation is: the factors that matter in the primaries are not the same ones that are going to matter in the general. Hillary handily won the primaries in 2016, but do you think she was the most likely candidate to win in the general? Obviously we can't know for sure, but I feel fairly certain there were other people who could have fared better (admittedly, maybe not Bernie). Primaries are not the same as the general, and I think Dems are being shortsighted in the primaries. That's my point.

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 0 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    Can you explain to me why I'm wrong? I wasn't challenging his policy. I was making fun of his public persona. (Genuinely asking, not being snarky.)

    [–] Democrats are going to nominate Joe Biden, and he's going to lose in November. And that makes me sooo furious. ExemplaryChad 7 points ago in TrueOffMyChest

    You might be right that Biden has better policies than Bernie. I don't think so, but maybe most other people do. I happen to disagree that Bernie's policies don't work, but that's not an argument we need to have right now. :-)

    The problem is that Biden is, in my estimation, the LEAST inspiring candidate of the entire field (or at least the serious contenders). So many Dems are going for "uninspiring but safe," and I think it's going to be disastrous for them. Even if Biden were better than the other candidates in every other way, the fact that he's not going to get people to come out and vote is going to bring us four more years of the incumbent admin. The problems I laid out in my OP highlight why not enough people will vote for him, regardless of his merits. Regardless of my personal feelings about Biden or his politics, I predict another Trump victory with Biden as the candidate. Like I keep saying, I sincerely hope I'm wrong.