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    Fizrock

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    [–] The shuttle program cost $57,090 per kg to deliver payload to orbit. SpaceX's upcoming rocket, BFR, will drop that price to $47 per kilogram. We are at the dawn of a new era in terms of what is possible in space. Fizrock 1 points ago in videos

    Assumes BFR launch cost of $7m, which is realistically just the fuel cost.

    No, definitely not. Some back of the napkin math says the raw fuel cost is more like $1.5m.

    The shuttle also had to ferry 4-7 people and their life support for a week, those weights are not included in the shuttle 'cargo capacity'.

    And BFR can carry around 100 people in addition to an enormous amount of cargo.

    While the BFR will also potentially include people, the 100,000kg estimate for the payload of the BFR doesn't subtract those out

    It's actually 150,000kg.

    [–] The shuttle program cost $57,090 per kg to deliver payload to orbit. SpaceX's upcoming rocket, BFR, will drop that price to $47 per kilogram. We are at the dawn of a new era in terms of what is possible in space. Fizrock 1 points ago in videos

    Yeah. Exactly. They are paying them for a service. What do you not get about this? On top of that, it's a service that is ultimately saving the taxpayer money because it's so much cheaper than alternatives.

    Also, that is outdated. Government contracts are less than half of SpaceX's contracts.

    [–] The shuttle program cost $57,090 per kg to deliver payload to orbit. SpaceX's upcoming rocket, BFR, will drop that price to $47 per kilogram. We are at the dawn of a new era in terms of what is possible in space. Fizrock 1 points ago * (lasted edited 2 hours ago) in videos

    but that includes things like a hard landing on a tarmac because one of the landing gear didn't deploy properly. Not exactly comparable.

    Yeah, and if a rocket does that, it explodes and kills everyone on board. Definitely comparable.

    I would argue that the force of an explosion doesn't actually matter. If it's a little explosion or a nuclear sized one, again, you're just as dead.

    Actually it does. For one it is unlikely that a burning aircraft explodes. Rockets have a lot more fuel and a ton of liquid oxygen lying around just waiting to go off. If your rocket is on fire, you can pretty much guarantee that it's going to go off. Planes can have explosions without killing everyone too.

    That's likely comparable to the intense forces a rocket experiences with the exception of Max Q.

    You forgot about reentry.
    Also, acceleration is a huge factor.

    [–] The shuttle program cost $57,090 per kg to deliver payload to orbit. SpaceX's upcoming rocket, BFR, will drop that price to $47 per kilogram. We are at the dawn of a new era in terms of what is possible in space. Fizrock 7 points ago in videos

    Do you know what those two are? They definitely do not use horizontal integration, at least at the moment. That does not necessarily reduce prices, either.

    Their competitors generally use far more subcontractors, which ramps up prices. SpaceX basically does everything themselves.

    [–] The shuttle program cost $57,090 per kg to deliver payload to orbit. SpaceX's upcoming rocket, BFR, will drop that price to $47 per kilogram. We are at the dawn of a new era in terms of what is possible in space. Fizrock 2 points ago in videos

    That's not really true. On average, your chance of surviving a plane crash is around 95%. The chance for rockets is nowhere near as high.

    You are also dealing with a rocket that has the explosive energy of a low yield nuclear weapon, and has to fly in one of the most extreme and dangerous environments known to man at speeds completely unmatched.

    Maybe in the distant future they will be just as safe as airliners are today, but by that point BFR will be an outdated relic of the past.

    [–] The shuttle program cost $57,090 per kg to deliver payload to orbit. SpaceX's upcoming rocket, BFR, will drop that price to $47 per kilogram. We are at the dawn of a new era in terms of what is possible in space. Fizrock 2 points ago in videos

    I said it elsewhere, but SpaceX is struggling to meet a 1 in 270 chance of a full loss of crew for their Dragon 2 spacecraft. It seems extremely unlikely that they could improve those chances by 1000x after getting rid of the abort system.

    There are also fundamental differences between chemical rockets and aircraft that make the rockets inherently more dangerous, really no matter how hard you try.

    [–] The shuttle program cost $57,090 per kg to deliver payload to orbit. SpaceX's upcoming rocket, BFR, will drop that price to $47 per kilogram. We are at the dawn of a new era in terms of what is possible in space. Fizrock 3 points ago * (lasted edited 3 hours ago) in videos

    No, it's not. As I just said, they were significantly cheaper before they were reusing any rockets. If you look at the prices now, the cost of flying on a reused F9 is not actually that much less than on a brand new one.

    An Atlas V 551, for example, has about the same payload to LEO as a F9, and costs about $225 million. A brand new F9 is about $62 million. A reused Falcon 9 (we don't actually know the price for sure) is more like $35-45 million. Pretty much all of the cost cutting happens before you even start reusing.