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    [–] The Kiev Major - Group Stage Day 1 - Round 2 High Seed - Match Discussions atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    It would be helpful if the casters knew what the fuck they were talking about in this regard. The amount of misinformation I've heard from the casters about the format is staggering.

    [–] Russian streamer just opened 80 treasures (500$) and got only 1 jugger-set atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    I saw in a different thread that because valve has set up their new chests with the guarunteed drop format for the normal items(if you buy 6 chests, you'll get all 6 normal items, for example), and because the rare/very rare items are bonuses that can accompany the normal items, they've effectively gotten around the requirement. Their drop rates are 1/x where x is the number of normal items. I don't know if that's actually true(like I said, my source is r/dota2), but I doubt very seriously they'll have to disclose the rare/very rare drop rates.

    [–] Russian streamer just opened 80 treasures (500$) and got only 1 jugger-set atlas5280 3 points ago in DotA2

    You're assuming that successive openings will eventually guaruntee a very rare drop, but that's not how escalating odds work. Additionally, unless you can officially source the rate at which the odds escalate, you might be talking about an escalation of 0.01% or lower with an initial drop chance of 0.1% or lower. So the increasing probability, while present, is minuscule. Additionally, we're still talking probability, and the LLN always applies to probability.

    [–] A friendly compliment atlas5280 19 points ago in DotA2

    Did he mean fuck you? But google translate led him astray?

    [–] Changes to coL.Dota atlas5280 19 points ago in DotA2

    Now that's actually a suggestion I can get behind.

    [–] Changes to coL.Dota atlas5280 2 points ago in DotA2

    There is no zfreek without swindlez though. They're a package deal.

    [–] Matchmaking update aftermath atlas5280 7 points ago in DotA2

    For me it's definitely put a spotlight on how people act when there queuing with friends(myself included). Parties really aren't good for the competitive environment. They just lead to blame-game vs white-knighting. Solo queue was a really good change for everyone. Parties now get to see in sharp relief how they act/function on a team that's almost certainly going to be 2/3 stack vs 2/3 stack, and solo players get to focus on their own shit knowing everyone is on even footing. Not to mention the MMR inconsistancy that comes with parties disappears(generally speaking, the matchmaker probably still gets this wrong especially at the high end of MMR)

    [–] Hypocrites from dota2 reddit atlas5280 2 points ago in DotA2

    Instead of making this post, couldn't you have made the Congratulations post?

    [–] Matchmaking is still broken. atlas5280 5 points ago in DotA2

    So those numbers are NOT their true party MMRs. These are the averages of their party/solo mmr. Whats happening hered is that one of them(most likely the 3.8k player) is actually a 5k player with a drastically lower party mmr, like 2.8k. And the 1.8k player is just that, a ~1.8k party/solo player. Because their true party MMR's are within the 2000 threshold, they're good to go, but because the dudes gap between party and solo is so huge, they get brought into a 3k game. Notice that they won 29 mmr(meaning that teams k-factor was 29, they were the statistical "underdogs"). This is BY DESIGN. The whole point is to close the gap between that dudes party and solo MMR, and make it so that this practice of maintaining huge differences in party and solo mmr dies out in the long run.

    The biggest take away is that those numbers ARE NOT their party MMR's, but rather somewhere between their party and solo, so the people that have like a 3k gap fuck everything up for the short term, but in the long run the issue is self correcting.

    [–] Russian streamer just opened 80 treasures (500$) and got only 1 jugger-set atlas5280 23 points ago in DotA2

    Alright so there's two conditions that have to be met for statistics to make sense. Both conditions are completely in your control. The first condition is that you have a belief in the Law of Large Numbers. This law states that anything that can happen will, and over the long run, will do so will predictable frequency. Small numbers of outcomes will not demonstrate this frequency correctly. Think about coin flipping. Assuming a fair and consistent coin toss each time, 10 coin flips is still very unlikely to yield 5 heads/5 tails, even though we know the odds are 50/50. But 1000 coin flips, and it's very likely you'll have a frequency of close to(but by no means necessarily) 50%.

    The second condition completely within your control is a disbelief in the inverse law, the law of small numbers, aka the gamblers fallacy. This is a belief that a previous outcome affects future outcomes, when in fact it does not. Building on our coin flip example, getting 5 tails in a row is in no way predictive of getting a heads on the 6th.

    I'm more surprised he got any rare drops with only 80 attempts. A 1/x odds does not mean that if you do something x times, the thing will happen. It's a relative frequency, meaning in the long run, dividing all attempts by the number of desired outcomes that occurred equals x.

    Sorry for the statistics lesson, but this was a really salient post to do it in, as a lot of people are very confused about how probability works.

    [–] The dota 2 English streaming scene is terrible atlas5280 2 points ago in DotA2

    It's the day before Kiev lmao. This whole thread is fucking bananas.

    [–] 1k Jebaited atlas5280 263 points ago in DotA2

    more like 4th pick double randomed

    [–] I honestly want to kill myself atlas5280 0 points ago in DotA2

    Lol you are pathetic human trash. You suck dick at dota and at life in general. I guarantee no one anywhere gives a shit about you.

    [–] I honestly want to kill myself atlas5280 0 points ago in DotA2

    Holy shit you are toxic slime. Go ahead man, kys.

    [–] I honestly want to kill myself atlas5280 2 points ago in DotA2

    First of all, the difference in networth is easily explained by the fact that they won, meaning they took numourous buildings and fights that your team did not. Farm has very little to do with the end game stat(think about how much all towers and barracks are worth, and remember that allies get that gold even if they're dead).

    Second, the MMR system works as intended. It's been proven over and over and over. What you're experiencing is called the dunning-kruger effect. You're wildly overestimating your own ability.

    Humble yourself and try to learn why exactly you lose games like this. You, not your teammates. Also accept that not all games will be won. Finally, get your emotions under control and realize that this is a team game, and you'll need your teammates help to win effectively and consistently.

    [–] The 270th Weekly Stupid Questions Thread atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    The jungle has also changed significantly, both in layout and function(certain creeps now give surrounding neutrals Magic resistance, making them much harder to flash farm, neutrals only spawn on odd minutes now, and at least a couple new creep types since the last time you played)

    There's a big emphasis on roaming during the landing phase and early team fighting. Static farming and split pushing are much less viable now due to the jungle changes and the shrines.

    As for roles, they haven't changed too much, but a lot of heroes have changed common roles. Also, many heroes have been added/redesigned in that time, so you'll have a lot of unfamiliar heroes walking around.

    My advice would be just to jump into unranked and play. Watch some purge gamers videos in between games, check out streams, etc. welcome back.

    [–] The 270th Weekly Stupid Questions Thread atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    Just to add to the second, if MK has truestrike, his ult illusions will also have it.

    [–] Humble Suggestion: Can completed items prefer main inventory slots or have a grace time for a short duration to swap them freely? atlas5280 4 points ago in DotA2

    The grace period would be greatly appreciated, but from a technical standpoint I can see why it would be a bit of a pain in the ass to implement(differentiating items delivered vs items swapped, picked up from ground, or given by teammates). Still though, it's feasible and it would be super nice.

    [–] Confused about new Party mmr atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    Because your MMR changed after the last game?

    [–] "Prime" matchmaking and initial calibration atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    There's never been anything in the changelogs about calibration cap. They've only every been figured out by smurfs grinding new accounts.

    [–] Confused about new Party mmr atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    The MMR you see in the post game screen is not your real MMR, it's a number somewhere between your solo and party MMR. However, the MMR increase or decrease you see does affect your actual party MMR.

    [–] Dota 2 Ranked Match Problem (linked phone number) atlas5280 1 points ago in DotA2

    You'll be able to play ranked once you calibrate. You will not have any problems.