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    jaygerbs

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    [–] Megathread: Bernie Sanders ends 2020 Democratic presidential bid jaygerbs 1 points ago in politics

    Wtf??? Most progressive presidencies in history? Sure, if you are just looking at the previous three years of US history you are right.....

    [–] Joe Rogan Says He'd Vote Trump Over Biden, Democrats Are INSANE To Think Biden Can Win jaygerbs 15 points ago in jillstein

    I voted for Jill in 2016--I won't ever vote for Clinton, Trump OR Biden.

    Democrats need to give the nomination to Bernie or give Trump 4 more years in power.

    [–] Ruined jump rope jaygerbs 2 points ago in crossfit

    I’ve been using it. My rope isn’t any worse, and I used an old yoga mat that was already starting to fall apart because the rope is doing some damage to the mat.

    [–] And to think--this survey took place on March 13th before all the massive layoffs and closures. jaygerbs 23 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Unfortunately the survey takes a lot of time to collect the data and analyze. So for April’s job report—which will come out the first Friday of May, they will be gathering unemployment surveys until next Friday.

    These job reports and official unemployment numbers are always about a month behind in reality.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    I see, maybe I just assumed when you said bulk of it and not many more businesses to close that you meant this is it for people being laid off.

    Instead you meant this is the bulk of it for people all being laid off at the same one week time interval.

    Got it now 👍

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Of the restaurants and bars surveyed, 3% that were forced to shut down have closed permanently—another 11% have said they will be forced to close permanently if they don’t get normal business revenue within the next 30 days.

    I’m doubtful we return to business as usual in 30 days.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    You are assuming businesses are going to be open again and the economy is going to be normal again May 1st. If not—plenty more dominos to fall.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Economists measure this by labor force not population as you suggest.

    Labor force is equal to the number of people employed and the number of people unemployed.

    It does not count full population because under 16 you can’t work, and if you are retired you are not looking for work either—if our population is 330,000,000 and labor force is only 164,000,000 then about half of our population is too young to work or have chosen to retire.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    You are right. Actually, with the people that filed for unemployment yesterday and today we are probably beyond 2008 unemployment, but we won’t know until next Thursday for sure.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    You are right, the labor force was about 100,000,000 in 1970. Today it is about 160,000,000.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 3 points ago in wallstreetbets

    That would be the unemployment rate. Number unemployed divided by labor force population.

    Those numbers come out monthly but are a lagging indicator.

    For instance tomorrow we will get the unemployment rate for March for households that completed the survey between March 1st-March 15th.

    We won’t get all these job losses until the first Friday of May in the April unemployment numbers.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs -1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Unemployment laws are still done on the state level.

    In Ohio (my state) 1099 and sole proprietors/LLC with only one employee still are not eligible for unemployment insurance. So unfortunately, Uber/Lyft, etc are not receiving unemployment benefits in the 7th most populated state.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 3 points ago in wallstreetbets

    I made a quick one after numerous requests this morning. It doesn't look any different.

    Quick graph as you requested

    With everyone thinking adjusting for civilian labor force will make any difference in the chart--I created a quick and simple graph.

    https://imgur.com/UcnzDU5

    Data is taken from FRED ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=igEd#0 ) but they have not included March 2020 numbers yet--so that last data point I put in manually.

    Formula FRED uses is the combining the months weekly jobless claims number and dividing by the civilian labor force in thousands (employed+unemployed)

    March 2020 weekly jobless claims number is 10,237,000/165,546=62.21

    Over 10 times higher than the previous high--in a way I think controlling for labor force shows a BIGGER spike then if we don't control for labor force.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Unfortunately weekly jobless claims did not start getting counted until 1967—I wish we had data from 1929 as well.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 1 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Be happy to. As an economist—I love new data points and breaking records. This is history. And a historical comeback would be the best story ever written!

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 4 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Quick graph as you requested

    With everyone thinking adjusting for civilian labor force will make any difference in the chart--I created a quick and simple graph.

    https://imgur.com/UcnzDU5

    Data is taken from FRED ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=igEd#0 ) but they have not included March 2020 numbers yet--so that last data point I put in manually.

    Formula FRED uses is the combining the months weekly jobless claims number and dividing by the civilian labor force in thousands (employed+unemployed)

    March 2020 weekly jobless claims number is 10,237,000/165,546=62.21

    Over 10 times higher than the previous high--in a way I think controlling for labor force shows a BIGGER spike then if we don't control for labor force.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 13 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Quick graph--not the best, FRED does not have March 2020 weekly claims numbers in its system yet.

    With everyone thinking adjusting for civilian labor force will make any difference in the chart--I created a quick and simple graph.

    https://imgur.com/UcnzDU5

    Data is taken from FRED ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=igEd#0 ) but they have not included March 2020 numbers yet--so that last data point I put in manually.

    Formula FRED uses is the combining the months weekly jobless claims number and dividing by the civilian labor force in thousands (employed+unemployed)

    March 2020 weekly jobless claims number is 10,237,000/165,546=62.21

    Over 10 times higher than the previous high--in a way I think controlling for labor force shows a BIGGER spike then if we don't control for labor force.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 2 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Here you go friend--we actually have a 10x increase over the previous high when we control for labor force--this is greater than the 8x multiple when we don't control for labor force.

    With everyone thinking adjusting for civilian labor force will make any difference in the chart--I created a quick and simple graph.

    https://imgur.com/UcnzDU5

    Data is taken from FRED ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=igEd#0 ) but they have not included March 2020 numbers yet--so that last data point I put in manually.

    Formula FRED uses is the combining the months weekly jobless claims number and dividing by the civilian labor force in thousands (employed+unemployed)

    March 2020 weekly jobless claims number is 10,237,000/165,546=62.21

    Over 10 times higher than the previous high--in a way I think controlling for labor force shows a BIGGER spike then if we don't control for labor force.

    [–] What 6.6 million jobless claims looks like versus the past 50 years of reports. jaygerbs 30 points ago in wallstreetbets

    Yes--last weeks 3.2 million was revised up to 3.3 million and this weeks 6.6 million--9.9 million unemployed claims in just 14 days.