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    jaynay1

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    [–] Ashton Hagans possible first rounder? jaynay1 1 points ago * (lasted edited 8 hours ago) in NBA_Draft

    I said this yesterday, but you would literally be better off drafting Herb Jones and only playing him out of position at the 1 than drafting Ashton Hagans. Jones is better at guarding the 1 and running an offense. And then of course you could also draft Jones and play him in position. But regardless, Hagans isn’t even close to draftable.

    He’s also not a very good defensive prospect. For every time his on ball pressure creates a steal there’s another where Lamar Peters drives right past him and PJ Washington is forced to clean it up. He’s definitely worse on that end than Tre Jones, and probably worse than Devon Dotson, though Dotson’s size complicates that. And he’s probably better than the other freshman PGs on defense but considering how they all project to be bottom quartile defenders at the NBA level that doesn’t mean much.

    [–] My first round mock. Herro, Reid, Schofield, Bitadze, and Thybulle round out my top 5 in second round. jaynay1 1 points ago in NBA_Draft

    That's not what modern defense in the NBA is in the slightest lol.

    Modern defense is extremely positioning heavy, involving lots of switching and lateral movements. The current analytics have shown that blocked shots literally are no more valuable than a miss. What you're saying could not be further from the truth.

    [–] My first round mock. Herro, Reid, Schofield, Bitadze, and Thybulle round out my top 5 in second round. jaynay1 1 points ago in NBA_Draft

    Could you phrase that as a complete sentence?

    I think you're trying to say that because he blocks shots and rebounds, that makes him a good defender, but that could hardly be further from the truth. He's often out of position and gives up more in easy baskets due to mispositioning as he saves with his blocks and rebounds.

    [–] [Post Game Thread] Mississippi State defeats Arkansas 77-67 jaynay1 2 points ago in CollegeBasketball

    Also dropping the OT game to LSU that we probably should have won.

    [–] [Post Game Thread] Mississippi State defeats Arkansas 77-67 jaynay1 1 points ago in CollegeBasketball

    IDK I think I'd have him behind only Q and Perry with the way that Holman's being utilized right now.

    [–] [Post Game Thread] Mississippi State defeats Arkansas 77-67 jaynay1 3 points ago * (lasted edited 20 hours ago) in CollegeBasketball

    Floating around twitter there's one completely random person saying he's heard rumors of academic fraud. That's an unsourced claim that probably has no basis in fact but it's also literally the only claim that's been presented so far. In other words, no, no word.

    [–] [Post Game Thread] Mississippi State defeats Arkansas 77-67 jaynay1 4 points ago in CollegeBasketball

    They had problems when Gafford was off the court last year too tbf.

    While yeah, Joe has been a revelation and comparable to Macon in terms of total quality (lower volume scoring, but a much better defender), I think Harris has been a pretty hard step down from Barford, and I say that as someone who was among the lowest on Barford. Harris has a ton of assists this season, sure, but he also has two of the softest assist targets in basketball. The rest of his game is a struggle too.

    IDK I feel like their biggest problem is the lack of shooting. Last year they had 3 guys take 100 3's at a better than 37% clip. This year, only Isaiah Joe is on pace to beat that. Mason Jones might if he gets super hot over the rest of the season but no one else really has a shot at it.

    [–] [Post Game Thread] Mississippi State defeats Arkansas 77-67 jaynay1 7 points ago in CollegeBasketball

    Thing is I wouldn't at all put it past you all to go 5-1 over the rest of SEC play, pick up 2 tournament wins and squeak in. Obviously you're not going to win on off nights for your two best players, but given the rest of your schedule it's conceivable. Basically have to win out minus Kentucky though.

    [–] [Post Game Thread] Mississippi State defeats Arkansas 77-67 jaynay1 2 points ago in CollegeBasketball

    So what's going on with Holman? I'm on a two week backlog catching up with games but it seems like he was inexplicably benched while Ado continues to see unmerited time.

    [–] [Post Game Thread] Mississippi State defeats Arkansas 77-67 jaynay1 6 points ago in CollegeBasketball

    We should win every game from here on out except for @Tennessee. Only problem is that "should" for this team in SEC play has hardly been "will".

    [–] Miles Bridges takes the lob from Kemba and throws down the 360 windmill in the throwback Larry Johnson jersey jaynay1 16 points ago in CharlotteHornets

    I mean I definitely said it at the time too; Miles is a power dunker, not the high level trick dunker that tends to win the contest.

    [–] What Makes Jaxson Hayes A Better Prospect Than Bruno Fernando? jaynay1 3 points ago in NBA_Draft

    He is way better at defense

    This is not particularly true. Bruno is currently a much better defender. Hayes is the one with a better shot at being a good defender at the NBA level though.

    [–] My first round mock. Herro, Reid, Schofield, Bitadze, and Thybulle round out my top 5 in second round. jaynay1 1 points ago in NBA_Draft

    If Collins were playing the 5 that wouldn’t look as drastic. A big part of that both at ATL and at Wake is that he’s playing a lot of the 4 which he’s just a little too slow for as opposed to the 5, which he doesn’t quite have the length for. He has okay instincts and could be a better defender than he is.

    [–] What Makes Jaxson Hayes A Better Prospect Than Bruno Fernando? jaynay1 1 points ago in NBA_Draft

    Yeah same concept, just different way to phrase it that allows you to connect it to other actions more cleanly

    [–] What Makes Jaxson Hayes A Better Prospect Than Bruno Fernando? jaynay1 3 points ago in NBA_Draft

    So basically think of the court as a standard coordinate grid.

    The X-Axis is left-right, so you get spacing that way through quick ball reversals, corner 3’s, backdoor Princeton cuts, etc. This is the most common type of spacing.

    The Y-axis runs basket to basket. You create space this way typically through off the dribble pressure, whether through Iso or the high PnR, but front cuts and UCLA cuts create space this way. Pull-up 3’s are the king of this kind of spacing.

    The Z-Axis is up and down. It’s primarily catching lobs and floaters, though I think a lot of postup possessions qualify here too.

    Not every possession uses only one kind of spacing, in fact almost all of them use multiple, because if you only use one then there’s typically a counteraction that can be taken by the defense no matter how good you are at spacing that way. Which makes players who can space along a different axis valuable.

    [–] What Makes Jaxson Hayes A Better Prospect Than Bruno Fernando? jaynay1 1 points ago in NBA_Draft

    This is also true. I focused on the defensive end but Hayes is possibly a high enough leaper to possibly create Z-Axis space, something that only a few guys in the NBA can do.

    [–] If The NBA Draft Was Today Do You Guys Think The Top 4 Picks (Zion, Ja, Cam, R.J) Would Be Locks? jaynay1 4 points ago in NBA_Draft

    I don’t think Morant or Reddish is a lock at all. Both have sufficient holes in their game that a couple of teams could easily fall out of love with them.

    [–] What Makes Jaxson Hayes A Better Prospect Than Bruno Fernando? jaynay1 7 points ago in NBA_Draft

    Hayes has significantly better lateral movement and vertical leap. While it may not give him as much potential against bigs, he has a lot more potential to move on the perimeter and deter drivers at the rim.

    [–] Kawhi Leonard 2.0s? jaynay1 2 points ago in NBA_Draft

    How so?

    [–] Mueller Recommends Sentence of 19-24 Years for Paul Manafort jaynay1 2 points ago in politics

    For now. Gamble vs. US may change that. And honestly, it probably should change that, right after actual protections against a despot being propped up by Congress are put in place.

    [–] Mueller Recommends Sentence of 19-24 Years for Paul Manafort jaynay1 10 points ago in politics

    And also how she didn't actually hire him. Literally he was given an account in order to have calendar access. Which is not unusual in the slightest.

    [–] Ceiling/floor on Ja Morant? jaynay1 1 points ago in NBA_Draft

    Yeah I think his FT% is what really saves him

    I think the reduced motion of the FT line actually benefits his form a lot and isn't likely to be translatable to his regular jumper.

    FT shooting seems like a safer projection than 3pt shooting

    So this is actually more complicated than just that. FT shooting was typically better historically because you didn't always get a proper sample of 3 point shooting. Morant will get close to 175 3PA this year though, and that should be a sufficient sample.

    For a PG like him I think he doesn’t necessarily have to be a 40% shooter. If he can get to 35-36% he will become a solid threat and that will open up his driving game.

    I agree. I just don't think it's likely he does get there. I think he's a guy that will float 30-32% at the NBA level barring improvement.

    Lastly his midrange is pretty decent so at least he can shoot from some places on the floor

    Hard disagree. He's shooting 41.7% on 2 point jumpers per hoop-math, but that number includes all shots from 2 not at the rim. Only problem is based on Will Schreefer's shot chart tool we can tell that he has a significantly higher percent inside the paint in settings that are traditionally floaters or hooks, not jumpers. I'd be surprised if his true midrange percents were north of 33% as well.

    [–] Ceiling/floor on Ja Morant? jaynay1 1 points ago in NBA_Draft

    I mean yeah? Westbrook was very obviously stronger in college than Morant is now.

    All 3 of the guys you've mentioned were several time as strong when they were in college as Morant is now. And that was their freshman year. And if you want to just scratch that and argue pure speed, then Morant doesn't even win for this class given that Devon Dotson exists.

    Morant's a good athlete, but he's only an elite one if you ignore his lack of strength, and given how many of the super athletic point guards needed their strength, I think that matters a lot.

    [–] Ceiling/floor on Ja Morant? jaynay1 2 points ago in NBA_Draft

    I think between 33% from the college 3 being not that good and his form being bad (he flares his elbow, doesn't consistently form a "shooting line", and his guide hand looks super funky, among other issues) I think it's perfectly safe to project him as a bad shooter.